2008 Crystal Ball

Fire of Liberty

If you watch any political show or read some news/opinion magazine you've probably under the impression that Hillary and McCain are the presumed front runners for president come 2008, well it seems that Pejman Yousefzadeh over at TCS Daily begs to differ. Here's a look:

The last Presidential candidate to have ascended to the Oval Office from any chamber of Congress was John F. Kennedy in 1960, when he moved to the Presidency from the Senate. Since then, the American electorate has elected, in order, a sitting President of the United States (1964), a former Vice President (1968), a sitting President (1972), a former Governor (1976), a former Governor (1980), a sitting President (1984), a sitting Vice President (1988), a Governor (1992), a sitting President (1996), a Governor (2000) and a sitting President (2004). Along the way, four Senators (Goldwater in 1964, McGovern in 1972, Dole in 1996 and Kerry in 2004) have been defeated in their quests for the Presidency as nominees of their party.

What all of this would appear to indicate is that America is an executive culture and not a parliamentary one. We appreciate Governors, Vice President and incumbent Presidents — all of whom have executive experience to bring to bear in performing their duties as Leader of the Free World. In contrast, Senators and Representatives cast votes. To be sure, casting votes is an important activity and oftentimes requires no small amount of courage. But a legislator is not an executive and it is easier for an executive to make claims about leadership experience that will stick positively with the public than it is for legislators — — as recent election cycles have shown.

One area he didn't mention was the fact that with the election two years people could grow tired of the two media darlings and will find it real easy to select some other person at the voting booth with a better set of ideas and direction. No matter what, thpresumeded front runners will also face a horrific run through the primargauntletet where a lot of folks in America's would rather vote for a loser than pick the likes of Hillary Clinton and John McCain to be their next nominee. Also don't count out the possibility for a Dark Horse candidates like Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876 or Bill Clinton in 1992 coming out of nowhere to take it all away from the heavy hitters come nomination time. I'm betting we could see the same thing happening come 2008.