Egypt

Fire of Liberty

During President Bush's State of the Union speech, he noted that the Egypt should take greater steps towards the promotion of freedom and democracy to its people. Since then, the Egyptian government has locked up Ayman Nour, leader of opposition party al-Ghad, for trumped up charges. By arresting Nour, the Mubarak regime has basically found a way to silence one of its opponents who actually has a good chance of winning. As I noted in a previous post, Nour and his party have been calling for a change to the Mubarak-friendly constitution that will allow an open presidential election rather than the yes or no referendum for a candidate approved by parliament. Unlike other opposition groups, who offer violence like the Muslim Brotherhood, the al-Ghad party has presented itself as a peaceful and more liberally minded alternative that allows more democratic freedoms, which are currently absent under the Mubarak government and his ruling National Democratic Party. While the actions of Mubarak and his lackeys would have been swept under the carpet some years ago, the arrest of Nour seems to have occurred at the most inopportune time. With freedom on the march in Afghanistan and Iraq, the people of the Arab World have looked around and have called for their move for greater democratic reforms. The Mubarak regime has also been presented with various demands from student protestors calling for his resignation as well as pressure from The White House and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice calling for the release of Mr. Nour and the broadening of democratic reforms within Egypt.

With all of the combined pressure, Mubarak seems to be cracking under pressure. Based on reports from Egypt, Mubarak has recommended that the NDP controlled parliament reform the constitution to allow an open election for president. Therefore, President Mubarak would have a challenger facing him in upcoming elections. You could say that the wily politician has come to his senses and is trying to become a greater democrat but you'd be wrong. As with all autocrats who sense a potential problem coming over the horizon, Mubarak has decided to make a move that would calm the waters and feels if he uses the right words, democracy in this case, he can escape the wrath of the US. The only problem with this pledge to hold an open presidential election is that its a chimera because the opposing candidate still has to be from an official political party and vetted by Mubarak's NDP controlled parliament. The only problem is that in order to get into the race, you have to go through the Mubarak gang. If you think this will pry Mubarak's hands from the reigns of power keep dreaming. He hasn't held power for 25 years for nothing and I doubt he'd welcome change anytime soon. While naive people like the national/international media as well as various members of the Near Eastern Affairs branch in the US State Department might see this as an opening to democracy, I see it as a ruse to turn down the heat. Mubarak might think his actions will improve his democratic credentials in the US and Egypt but he's actually playing the crazy dictator games that the World has had enough of. The attitude towards The Middle East has changed in Washington from the promotion of realism into the promotion of democratic oriented governments that shows a disdain for autocratic rule. The people of these nations have also gained the spirit of freedom especially after watching the recent events in Ukraine, Iraq and Lebanon. They've decided they've had enough of the Mubarak reign and are calling for change but the aging dictator only placates the people by offering them a chimera of hope that simply disappears when trouble moves off the radar screen.

Personally, I suggest that President Bush should re-evaluate our current military/civilian aide that we provide to the Nile Kingdom. If the Egyptian government can't offer greater democratic reforms than they currently offer then they will receive less and less of our money. Autocratic regimes seem to sit up straight and listen when you mention the words "money" or "regime change". While we are a long way from the extreme measures like a regime change, we still have leverage in the World and the likes of Mubarak still seem to listen. It's time to spread the fire of liberty to Egypt and push them to open the door to democracy. Time is wasting and the people of Egypt are ready for the door to be opened. Just look at what Dr. Rice and Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Cal.) have been doing, click here.