Sunday, February 20, 2005

EU's Future Dim in 2015

Fire of Liberty

According to a CIA analysis, the EU faces an enormous problem in 2015. Based on the report, the EU will reach its nadir in 2015 if it doesn't clamp down on its excessive welfare state expenditures. While these states continue dole out money on welfare programs like national healthcare and continues its heavy government regulation, the economies of the EU nations will continue to lack growth thus falling further and further behind nations like China and India.

The EU also faces a growing demographic challenge because of low birthrates. With such low birth rates, the EU populations are becoming grayer and lack a sufficient amount of young workers to replace the aging and retiring workforce. This lack of a younger workforce thus places these nations' economies in a glide plane of decline. This in turn forces these nations to seek a substantial replacement workforce which turns out to be immigrants from Muslim countries like Morocco and Algeria. Based on predictions, the growth of the Muslim community in Europe will rise from the present day 13% to some 22%-37% by 2025. While this growth will be helpful, the CIA report predicts that this rise in the Muslim community could create serious disruptions. Due to a lack of assimilation to European society and culture, there have been various incidents that show an emerging situation in Europe. See here, here and here .

While this is only an futuristic strategic analysis of Europe, the situation seems to be more truth than prediction. I hope Europe can correct the situation but I'm scared they might have crossed the Rubicon. For an even better analysis, check out this piece by Mark Steyn.

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