Here's a good commentary by Robert Kagan over @ The Washington Post on the emerging Chinese dragon. While a considerable amount of people in America fret about China's rising economy via its comparative advantage , Kagan and other strategic thinkers are more concerned about the rise of China's military and its continued signs of future aggression. We've already witnessed a 12.5% to 13% increase in China's defense budget, the proliferation of Surface-to-Air missiles opposite Taiwan, the passage of an anti-secessionist against Taiwanese independence, subtle warnings against Japan and Australia on their relationship with the US all of which reveal that the concern is well merited. I'd have to say that Kagan sums up the whole situation on China is his short but powerful piece. Take a look:
In fact, of course, there is nothing at all subtle about Chinese "diplomacy." The Chinese are indeed flexing their muscles, wielding their increasing economic and military clout to demand greater obedience from their neighbors. There is nothing surprising in this. The only surprise is the way the world, including the United States, has in recent years tried to ignore China's growing belligerence, mesmerized by its economic performance and dreaming of a reformed, postmodern China that can be "integrated" into the global liberal economic order. Some American analysts have even been calling for the erection of new collective security structures in East Asia that would include China.Thankfully Robert Kagan has brought sanity to the whole discussion on China. Instead of the typical State Department/Nixon Center claptrap about how the Chinese are an economic power and we don't need to fret over their growing hegemonic tendencies because they needs us for trade, Kagan notes that the dangerous ChiComs are really a danger to the freedom and democracy of Asia. I just hope the White House has the same conclusion.
But that rather misses the point. New security structures are needed in East Asia, but they should involve America's democratic allies, all of whom now share an increasing fear of a China whose rise may or may not be entirely peaceful. Since Sept. 11, 2001, a United States understandably consumed with the terrorist threat has done less than it might have to reassure those allies that America's power and its will to deter remain undiminished in East Asia. This may have helped convince the Chinese that bullying can work.
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