UK Election: Uncertainties exist for Labour Landslide

Fire of Liberty

Here's John O'Sullivan's latest article on the UK Election over at National Review Online. He notes that even though Blair and Labour are destined for a win on May 5, they will probably run into some serious voter speedbumps that could rock the party to the core. O'Sullivan points out that these speedbumps can be summed up in several factors which include 1. Mixed polls -showing Labour up big and up by a small margin-demonstrates that voters willing to change horses, 2. Polls understate Tories share of seats- Last 3 elections Tories gained more than Labour, 3. Multi-Parties on ballots make projections even harder-Party, 4. Low voter turnout, and finally, you have to worry about the "marginal seats" which have voted with Labour since 1997 but have become dishearted by rising crime, NHS, immigration and taxes that they could migrate to the Tories. All of these combined will make a big difference in raising the chances of a Tory win or a greater than expected showing come Thursday night. Though Tony Blair deserves our praise in his steely support of the US during the Iraq War, my heart still yearns for a Tory return to 10 Downing Street to ensure that the UK stays out of the EU and Gordon Brown and the lefty-loonies don't wrestle the reigns of power from Blair some months or years down the road. You might think things are rocky between the US and Europe but you haven't seen anything compared to what awaits us when Brown takes over.

Also check out this piece from The Financial Times on the "marginal seats"-what's better known as Middle England -who have become disillusioned by Labour. It's an interesting insight into British politics and reminds me of the US election of 2000 when states carried by Clinton in 96 were carried by Bush some four years later. Expect a big discussion on the how Blair lost these voters in the post election coverage.